Tag: Crisis Management
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Surviving the Spring
Show moreShow lessMain question: How did Egypt’s regime survive the 2011 uprising and re-emerge stronger? Argument: It did so through “compound authoritarianism” — the interaction of institutional entrenchment (military control), economic co-optation (rentier dynamics), and calibrated repression. Conclusion: Regime durability stems from these mutually reinforcing mechanisms, creating a structurally resilient authoritarian system beyond individual leadership.
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Jihadist expansion across borderlands in the Sahel
JNIM and ISSP are expanding into coastal West Africa to control illicit trade. Regional stability now depends on the new AES Unified Force’s ability to integrate operations with local security and overcome tensions to coordinate regionally.
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Gulf Instability Strains Central Asian Neutrality
– How does the Iran war affect Central Asia’s neutrality and trade? – The conflict disrupts key transit routes, raises prices, and forces C5 states to balance ties between Iran, the US, and regional partners. – Prolonged instability will strain neutrality, pushing Central Asia to diversify trade routes and deepen reliance on alternative partners like…
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Iran in 2026
Main question: progress of doemtic unrest and war in Iran Arguemnts: domestic unrest less important for Iran compared to War Conclusion: situation needs to be observed as it progresses
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Middle East Maritime Security & Geostrategy
Can conventional military deterrence and naval coalitions effectively neutralize asymmetric threats from non-state actors in fractured states like Yemen? While the U.S. prioritizes trade stability and Israel enforces direct deterrence, these kinetic responses address maritime symptoms rather than the underlying political fragmentation. Lasting Red Sea security requires political stabilization; military force alone cannot resolve a…
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South Sudan’s Potential Descent into Crisis
The main question is, how can history help us better understand and put the current 2025-2026 crisis into context. South Sudan’s stability is undermined by historic ethnic grievances, but also important to note but often left out in the discourse is by the extractive resources economic model that incentivizes leadership to use identity-based violence as…
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Was WEF26 Truly Equipped to Address Peace?
Was WEF26 equipped to address peace given the complex geopolitical structures and tension around Greenland? WEF26 was effective in terms of dialogue and de-escalation, but structurally not capable of enforcing and ensuring peace Davos can be a tool to talk about peace, but it can’t guarantee it.
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Agenda Shaper on Ukraine
How has the European Parliament (EP) used own-initiative (INI) reports to shape the EU’s support to Ukraine whilst advocating more EU influence? The EP urged stronger support to Ukraine via informal agenda shaping, arguing that this crisis and its values necessitate a stronger role on foreign policy for the EU and, in particular, the EP.…
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After Maduro’s Ouster: Transition or Recast?
Main Question: Is Venezuela heading toward a democratic transition or a market-authoritarian reconfiguration after Maduro’s ouster? Argument: Early changes show a fast economic opening (especially in oil) under U.S. licensing and revenue controls, while political guarantees lag amid emergency governance, fragile civic space, and reversible repression. Conclusion: So far, evidence points more to reconfiguration than…
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South America’s Turn to the Right
Is South America’s shift to the right ideological or cyclical? Voters have turned to right-wing leaders mainly because of economic problems, crime, and frustration with prolonged left-wing governments. Hence, the shift is a short-term, corrective reaction rather than ideological in nature.