EPIS Thinktank

Category: Security Policy & Defence

  • The Attribution Problem at Sea

    The Attribution Problem at Sea

    —

    by

    Elisabeth Schaefer
    in

    This brief examines whether the concept of the attribution problem can be applied to sabotage of critical underwater infrastructure (CUI) in the Baltic Sea. It argues that while technical attribution is often possible, political, legal, and discursive constraints limit clear attribution. Applying Rid and Buchanan’s (2015) Q-Model, it shows that ambiguity persists across all stages.

  • Regionalising Maritime Domain Awareness in SEA

    —

    by

    EPIS Think Tank
    in

    – what are the challenges inhibiting a comprehensive MDA strategy in SEA? – On a technical and governance level, SEA states are uncoordinated – states should work towards building up information sharing capacity and trust rather than solely looking to external actors.

  • Philippine Energy Security: The 2026 Crisis

    —

    by

    EPIS Think Tank
    in

    – How can the Philippines mitigate national security threats from “single-source” energy reliance and Maritime chokepoint disruptions? – The Philippines must pivot from a “passive importer” to a leader in Strategic Energy Alliances, integrating resource development into national defense and security policy. – Transitioning offshore basins from “planned” to “producing” and resolving West Philippine Sea…

  • PDSF 2026

    PDSF 2026

    —

    by

    Gidi Brandes
    in

    Main question: How can sovereignty be protected in a volatile, disrupted world? Argument: Power now depends on resilience, partnerships, chokepoints, and institutions able to challenge their own assumptions. Conclusion: Sovereignty today cannot mean isolation; it requires strong alliances, diversified dependencies, diplomacy, and honest debate.

  • The Security Dilemma in post-Arab Spring Libya

    —

    by

    Carlo Magnani
    in

    How did the Arab Spring shape Libya’s long-term political fragmentation and insecurity? The 2011 uprising dismantled weak state institutions, triggering a security dilemma where militias and foreign actors filled the power vacuum, reinforcing division. Libya’s instability persists due to entrenched militia power and external interference, making unified governance and democratic transition unlikely without structural change.

  • ME Instability & the US-China Power Balance

    —

    by

    Electra Gkika
    in

    1: How does the escalation of instability in the Middle East affect the global balance of power between the U.S. and China, and what are the secondary implications for stability in the Indo-Pacific? 2: While the U.S. faces a “credibility gap” as a security provider, China acts as a “free rider,” leveraging M. Eastern energy…

  • Beyond Succession

    Beyond Succession

    —

    by

    Nuria Mallofre Forn
    in

    Main question: Do Kim Ju-ae’s appearances signal succession, or something broader about regime strategy? Argument: Her visibility is less about naming a successor than projecting dynastic continuity, strategic confidence, and strengthened legitimacy amid growing military power and ties with Russia/China. Conclusion: This signals a more self-assured North Korea, potentially reducing incentives for diplomatic engagement.

  • From Drone Strategy 2.0 To a Trusted EU Drone

    From Drone Strategy 2.0 To a Trusted EU Drone

    —

    by

    Aymane Guenaou
    in

    Can the EU move from a strong civilian drone framework to achieving air sovereignty through a more security- and defence-oriented drone strategy, and how should it do so without fragmentation? Major structural gaps remain, while increasing securitisation risks undermine innovation and market growth. Achieving true European air sovereignty will depend on closing capability gaps, reducing…

  • Interview with BGen Lobel: Rethinking Warfare

    Interview with BGen Lobel: Rethinking Warfare

    —

    by

    Burak Baran
    in

    War has shifted to inside of Europe, taking place within civilian populations, infrastructure, and networks threatening the whole continent. Military success depends on civilian systems like energy, transport, and private sector logistics NATO integrates civilian and military planning to anticipate risks and ensure operational readiness

  • The Sovereignty Gap in Cloud-Based Warfare

    The Sovereignty Gap in Cloud-Based Warfare

    —

    by

    Laura Pieciukiewicz
    in

    This brief explores the relationship between state authorities and tech companies in the context of sovereignty in national defence. It argues that growing reliance on privately-leased AI infrastructure transforms the way sovereignty is exercised, it does not constitute a full transfer of power to corporate actors. The paper concludes that sovereignty today is less about…