Category: International Economic Relations
-
If the AI Bubble Bursts
What would happen to the US and Chinese economies if the AI bubble burst? An AI market crash would trigger major economic losses, strain public and private budgets, and reshape geopolitical competition, exposing structural vulnerabilities in both countries. A burst would not end the US–China tech rivalry but shift it toward more diversified and sustainable…
-
EU Competitiveness Ambitions: A Poor Report Card
Main Question: Does the new MFF proposal provide sufficient resources to meet the EU’s strategic competitiveness ambitions Argument: The Competitiveness Fund is insufficient compared to the Draghi report’s €800bn annual target. Essentially, it relies on shuffling existing funds rather than “new money,” leaving key sectors like semiconductors and green tech underfunded. Conclusion: The current proposal…
-
India’s New Trade Playbook with Europe
What do the contrasting India–EFTA TEPA and India–EU FTA negotiations reveal about India’s evolving trade policy? The TEPA’s rapid conclusion versus the EU FTA’s long deadlock shows India’s shift from defensive multilateralism to pragmatic, investment-led bilateralism that prioritises industrial goals over tariff cuts. India is not rejecting globalisation but reshaping it, opening selectively on its…
-
Europe’s CRMs midstream gap:
How can Europe decrease its dependencies on the Chinese midstream industry in the critical raw material supply line? Engaging with Southern African countries like Zambia, Botswana, and Namibia might be part of the solution. There exists a rare strategic incentive overlap for equal cooperation between Europe and these Southern African countries.
-
Policy Recommendation: Trade Policy
Question: How do trade wars impact global economics, and how can states respond? Argument: Trade wars disrupt supply chains, raise prices, and weaken multilateral institutions; mitigation requires diversification, digital standards, and multilateral trust. Conclusion: States can reduce trade war risks through diversified trade, anti-coercion measures, tech agreements, and multilateral engagement
-
Post-Trump defense shifts
Question: How did Trump’s policies affect Europe’s defense industry? Argument: “America First” pushed Europe to spend more and seek autonomy, helping local contractors Conclusion: Growth continues, but supply chain and budget limits remain
-
Impact of Tariffs: Indo-Pacific Trade Agreements
Question: How are tariffs used as foreign policy tools in the Indo-Pacific? Argument: Tariffs now signal political intent, reshape supply chains, and interact with FTAs like RCEP and CPTPP amid geopolitical rivalry. Conclusion: They drive selective integration, strategic realignment, and regional technological competition.
-
Tariffs: Domestic Costs, Global Repercussions
Question: How have U.S. tariffs since 2018 impacted inflation and global markets? Argument: Meant to protect industries, tariffs raised costs, pushed up consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and provoked retaliation. Conclusion: Protectionism offers short-term political wins but fuels inflation, harms trade, and destabilizes markets.
-
Effects of Trade Wars on the Bretton Woods System
Question: How have Bretton Woods institutions adapted to new economic realities? Argument: Once stabilizing post-war economies, the IMF, World Bank, and WTO now face declining trust amid Western isolationism and rising BRICS influence. Conclusion: Global economic governance is fragmenting, requiring policymakers to plan for long-term geopolitical and economic shifts.
-
A New Era of Economic Nationalism
How do Trump-era tariffs and foreign aid cuts reflect economic nationalism and impact the global order? Tariffs and aid reductions, though aimed at protecting U.S. interests, have slowed growth, hurt supply chains, undermined global development, and weakened U.S. influence abroad. Economic nationalism comes at high costs; interconnected global systems and cooperation remain vital